While the number of centenarians may be increasing, new research reveals that statistically, no one alive today should expect to live to 100 years of age. Using six different forecasting methods to predict life expectancy rates for 23 high-income, low-mortality countries, the study authors found that average lifespans for those born between 1939 and 2000 are highly unlikely to reach this landmark.
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The unprecedented longevity of today’s seniors is largely thanks to medical advancements during the first few decades of the 20th century, resulting in rapid increases in life expectancy. Between 1900 and 1938, the average lifespan increased by 0.46 years per generation, so that those born at the turn of the century could expect to celebrate 62 birthdays while those born 38 years later were likely to find themselves blowing out 80 candles on their final cake.
And while lifespans have continued to expand ever since, the rate of improvement has slowed, leading to question marks over how long today’s population is likely to remain buckled into the wild ride we call life. Based on their analysis, the study authors suggest that the pace of increase in life expectancy should decline by 37 to 52 percent per generation between 1939 and 2000.
“In the absence of any major breakthroughs that significantly extend human life, life expectancy would still not match the rapid increases seen in the early 20th century even if adult survival improved twice as fast as we predict,” said study author Héctor Pifarré i Arolas in a statement. “We forecast that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone,” added co-author José Andrade.
According to their data, the researchers say that this decline is primarily due to the fact that previous surges in life expectancy were caused by rapid improvements in infant mortality rates as pediatric medicine advanced in the early 1900s. However, with infant mortality now so low in all developed countries, it’s unlikely that we’ll ever see another spurt in life expectancies of the sort that occurred in the last century.
Overall, more than half of the deceleration is explained by mortality trends among children under the age of five, while over two-thirds is accounted for by mortality trends among those younger than 20.
Of course, that’s not to say that another major leap in life expectancy couldn’t occur, and the study authors point out that world-changing medical advancements can always cause mortality rates to deviate from the norm. In other words, the discovery of a cure for cancer would probably skew the data, causing average life expectancies to hurtle towards the 100-year mark. Failing this, however, congratulatory letters from the king are likely to remain a rarity.
Despite this pessimistic prognosis, the researchers insist that “the findings of this study are not intended to be interpreted as evidence in favor or against a biological age limit to human life.” After all, lifespans are continuing to creep skywards – admittedly not as fast as they once were – and the authors say there’s no reason why this can’t continue.
The study has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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