Fed signals bond-buying taper coming ‘soon,’ rate hike shifts to 2022

September 22, 2021

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cleared the way to reduce its monthly bond purchases “soon” and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected, with nine of 18 U.S. central bank policymakers projecting borrowing costs will need to rise in 2022.

The actions, which were included in the Fed’s latest policy statement and separate economic projections, represent a hawkish tilt by a central bank that sees inflation running this year at 4.2%, more than double its target rate, and is positioning itself to act against it.

That action may proceed slowly, with interest rates seen rising to 1% in 2023, faster than projected by the Fed in its projections in June, and then to 1.8% in 2024, which would still be considered a loose monetary policy stance.

Inflation throughout that time would be allowed to run slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, consistent with its new, more tolerant approach to the pace of price increases, while unemployment is seen falling back to around the pre-pandemic low of 3.5%.

Still, the shift shows movement among policymakers divided over whether the coronavirus pandemic’s ongoing impact on the economy or the threat of breakout inflation constitutes the bigger risk.

The Fed on Wednesday held its current target interest rate steady in a range of 0% to 0.25%.

U.S. stocks extended gains after the release of the statement, with the S&P 500 index up 1.3% on the day. The dollar reversed course and moved lower, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note was slightly lower.

Though acknowledging the new surge of the pandemic had slowed the recovery of some parts of the economy, overall indicators “have continued to strengthen,” the central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in a unanimous statement.

If that progress continues “broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted,” it said.

The statement had been widely expected to signal that the Fed would soon begin winding down the $120 billion in monthly bond purchases it has been making to blunt the economic impact of the pandemic.

But it was in their broader economic outlook that Fed policymakers made a less anticipated change.

The outlook for inflation jumped 0.8 percentage point for 2021 and the unemployment rate seen at the end of this year rose. In turn, two officials brought forward into 2022 their projected timeline for slightly lifting the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate from the current level, enough to raise the median projection to 0.3% for next year.

(Reporting by Howard SchneiderEditing by Paul Simao)

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