The world is on the precipice of a “third nuclear age,” according to the UK’s head of armed forces Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. He’s not the first person to sound the alarm. In recent years, a number of think tanks and researchers have claimed a new atomic age is upon us. But what exactly is this new “age” and what were the two previous stages that came before?
The First Nuclear Age (1945 to 1991)
The First Nuclear Age was essentially the Cold War, characterized by the emergence of nuclear weapons and the vying superpowers of the US and the Soviet Union.
These two superpowers, along with a handful of their allies, became hellbent on rapid nuclear development and stockpiling. The world’s nuclear arsenals grew from around 3,000 weapons in 1955 to over 60,000 in the late 1980s (around 23,000 in the US and 39,000 in the Soviet Union).
The order of the day was Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), the idea that a nuclear attack by one country would provoke an overwhelming counterstrike, leading to the total annihilation of both sides. This concept deterred nations from using nuclear weapons, thus maintaining a fragile peace.
There were very close calls, though. One of the defining moments of the First Nuclear Age was the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, a 13-day standoff that began when the US discovered Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. A catastrophe was narrowly avoided thanks to a deal in which the USSR removed the weapons in exchange for an American pledge not to invade Cuba and the withdrawal of US missiles from Turkey.
The Second Nuclear Age (1991 to 2020s)
The Soviet Union collapsed between 1989 and 1991, effectively ending the Cold War. A new era of peace, right? Well, not exactly.
On one hand, the risk of nuclear war was dramatically reduced. The US and Russia reduced their nuclear arsenals through a series of agreements, such as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties, and there had been a freeze on the testing, development, and deployment of new nukes.
On the other hand, new problems emerged. Emerging powers began testing nuclear weapons – such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea – and a new paradigm of nuclear multipolarity began. Instead of worrying about superpowers blowing up the planet, the new concern was the nuclear capabilities of regional powers and “rogue” actors, including terrorist groups.
Tensions between India and Pakistan were particularly tense, raising the risk of conflict between two neighboring, nuclear-armed nations. Meanwhile, North Korea began nuclear tests in 2006, creating an unprecedented situation where a “rogue state” could fire atomic weapons if they felt the need to do so.
The Third Nuclear Age (2020s to ?)
Many argue that the world has entered a new era of nuclear strategy, defined by new technologies – such as artificial intelligence (AI) and hypersonic weapons – and renewed tensions among major nuclear-armed powers like the US, China, and Russia. Smaller nuclear nations, such as Israel and North Korea, are also in the midst of intense geopolitical tensions, while countries like Iran are still aspiring to become a nuclear power.
Simultaneously, there’s been a breakdown of some Cold War-era pacts that were designed to avoid nuclear conflict and many nations have started bolstering their nuclear arsenals once again.
“We are at the dawn of a third nuclear age, which is altogether more complex. It is defined by multiple and concurrent dilemmas, proliferating nuclear and disruptive technologies and the almost total absence of the security architectures that went before,” Admiral Sir Tony Radakin reportedly said at an annual address at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) defense think tank in London this week.
“From Russia, we have seen wild threats of tactical nuclear use, large-scale nuclear exercises and simulated attacks against Nato countries, all designed to coerce us from taking the action required to maintain stability,” he said.
“China’s nuclear build-up poses a two-peer challenge to the United States. Iran’s failure to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency is a concern, and North Korea’s ballistic missile program and erratic behavior present a regional and, increasingly, a global threat.”
There is, of course, no telling how the Third Nuclear Age will pan out, but we can hope the next age doesn’t emerge from a smoldering crater.
Source Link: Is The World Entering A "Third Nuclear Age"?
