A new preprint from David Kipping, assistant professor of astronomy at Columbia University, has suggested that our first contact with aliens will likely be atypical, and particularly bleak.
Since at least the time of Epicurus, who lived from 341-270 BCE, humans have speculated that there might be other forms of life out there in the universe.
“There is an infinite number of worlds, some like this world, others unlike it. For the atoms being infinite in number, as has just been proved, are borne ever further in their course,” Epicurus wrote in a letter to Herodotus. “For the atoms out of which a world might arise, or by which a world might be formed, have not all been expended on one world or a finite number of worlds, whether like or unlike this one. Hence there will be nothing to hinder an infinity of worlds.”
In the last century, scientists have attempted to make headway in the daunting task of actually detecting them. This is not an easy problem. We know of intelligent (kinda) life on exactly one planet, and have to extrapolate from that what alien intelligences may look and act like.
Frequently, our idea of what aliens more advanced than us may act like comes from our own ideals. We assume they may pursue more and more power and resources, as we ourselves have done, or constantly expand to fit their needs. Hence scientists proposing concepts like Dyson Spheres and other grand megastructures to service their power needs, or imagining aliens that can harness the power of their galaxy as they expand through it. Though we haven’t exactly exhausted the night sky, we have found no signs of such aliens (some turned out to be Hot Dogs).
But what if these ideas are all signs of a not particularly advanced, or long-living, species?
“As a twist on Arthur C. Clark’s famous words, science fiction author Carl Schroeder once wrote, ‘Any sufficiently advanced civilization is indistinguishable from nature’,” Kipping explained in an accompanying Cool Worlds video. “So advanced, mature alien civilizations could be out there, but we would never know about them because they become so sustainable that there’s no signature left us to grab onto anymore. The Escation hypothesis leans into this idea and suggests that the most detectable alien civilizations will be the unstable ones.”
In the paper, which has not yet been peer reviewed, Kipping points out that in our astronomical searches we have often detected the unusual outlier first, rather than what might be typical in the universe, particularly as they are easier to detect.
For example, the first three exoplanets were found around rapidly spinning and highly-magnetized neutron stars known as pulsars, and for a time this challenged our assumption that other solar systems out there would be somewhat like our own.
But as we conducted more research and surveyed the sky, finding over 6,000 exoplanets, the number of planets around pulsars remained below 10. Meanwhile, supernovas are thought to go boom in a galaxy around twice a century, and yet because of their sheer brightness compared to the background, thousands of these events are detected every year throughout the cosmos.
“The ‘Eschatian Hypothesis’, Kipping writes, “thus argues that humanity’s first confirmed detection of another intelligence could be that of an inherently unstable, transitory, atypical but very loud example.”
In our search for signs of life it has been suggested we should look for the ways which we ourselves may be detectable, for example through signs that a species is heating its own planet through a greenhouse effect and pollution. As should be plainly obvious by now, such departures from equilibrium are unsustainable, and may be short-lived.
But according to Kipping, during a short-lived “loud” phase, these civilizations may be much more detectable than the (hopefully more abundant) quiet civilizations who are more sustainable, and less distinguishable from the natural.
During a “loud” phase, an alien civilization may use a significant amount of the total power that they expended over their overall lifetimes, and like a supernova shining briefly and powerfully against the backdrop, they may for a short time be more detectable because of it.
“Here, first contact is with a civilization in its death throes, one violently flailing before the end. As an extension to this idea, such a species may even recognize his imminent demise and decide to consciously send out messages into the void as a kind of last-ditch resort,” Kipping adds in the video. “Any fears of external threat dissolve when facing internal annihilation. There’s nothing to lose and everything to gain.”
In terms of the search for alien life, Kipping suggests that we should keep an eye on as much of the sky as possible, and revisit the same areas regularly to find “transient” events that appear and disappear from view on timescales that are not astronomical, broadening our chances of making a detection, even if it is a tragic one.
In short, our best chance of making first contact may be to look for “loud shouts in the night”, tragic cries of a doomed civilization, rather than the advanced benevolent/malevolent aliens of the movies.
The paper is posted to preprint server arXiv.
Source Link: The Eschatian Hypothesis: Why Our First Contact From Aliens May Be Particularly Bleak, And Nothing Like The Movies
