The world is a dangerous place – but what, precisely, is making it so perilous? A new report from the World Economic Forum has answers, and we gotta say, it ain’t pretty.
What’s the report?
The World Economic Forum – the international think tank behind the annual meeting in Davos and countless other projects – has been putting out its Global Risks Report for two decades now. Its aim is… well, kind of obvious from the name: it’s meant to outline the greatest risks to the planet in the short- and long-term future.
What does that actually mean? How does one predict what will or will not end up being a problem? They’re fair questions – so before we look at what the report concluded, let’s see how it got there.
“’Global risk’ is defined as the possibility of the occurrence of an event or condition that, if it occurs, would negatively impact a significant proportion of global GDP, population or natural resources,” explains the report, right off the jump. These could be environmental, such as climate change or natural disasters; they could be geopolitical, such as wars or societal unrest. Societal risks include things like growing inequality, new pandemics, or human rights violations; technological ones might be the rise of AI or cyber warfare; finally, there are economic risks, like recessions, inflation, labor shortages, and so on.
These five categories weren’t chosen at random, by the way: environmental, geopolitical, societal, technological, and economic risks were the groups set forward by the Forum itself when the report was being created. It took the form of a survey, sent to over 900 experts from academia, business, government, and so on.
“The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) is the World Economic Forum’s source of original risks data, harnessing the expertise of the Forum’s extensive network of academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society,” the report explains. “Survey responses were collected from 2 September to 18 October 2024 from the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder communities.”
As you might expect, this does give the survey something of a self-selecting bias – in order to be surveyed by the World Economic Forum, you have to already be “in” with the World Economic Forum. But the report can hardly be accused of not being thorough, at least: it covered which risks respondents felt were “most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2025,” the report explains, as well as how severely they felt each of 33 risks would likely impact the world over the next two to 10 years.
Respondents were also asked how they felt individual risks interacted with all others, as well as how they saw risks playing out over the next decade. Finally, they were asked to classify how they saw the next two to 10 years, choosing either “calm” (negligible risk of global catastrophes), “stable” (isolated disruptions, but low risk of global catastrophes), “unsettled” (some instability, and moderate risk of global catastrophes), “turbulent” (upheavals and an elevated risk of global catastrophes), or “stormy” (global catastrophic risks looming).
So, with all that accounted for – what did they decide?
The biggest risk of 2025
Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon, Sudan, Myanmar – the world is full of skirmishes, battles, and outright devastating wars right now, so it’s probably no surprise that the topmost worry for those contributing to the Global Risks Perception Survey was state-based armed conflict. In fact, close to one in four respondents chose that as the most likely out of all 33 options to cause a global catastrophe this year.
It’s a sharp rise from number eight in the rankings last year, and it’s only marginally less alarming on the mid- to long-term scale: it ranked number three for the highest risk over the next two years, and number 12 over the next decade – apart from in the Middle East and Northern Africa, where it cracked the top five.
It’s a category that brings with it all kinds of related risks. “Respondents cite[d] Geoeconomic confrontation as well as the technology-related concerns Cyber espionage and warfare and Misinformation and disinformation among the risks most closely linked to State-based armed conflict,” the report notes – prescient, perhaps, as social media giants scrap fact-checking for timelines already rife with AI-generated political images.
But a major driver of concern highlighted by the report is the increasing lack of international effort towards peacekeeping – meaning that we may be heading towards a more brutal, “winner-takes-all” style of warfare, and more isolation worldwide.
“Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape” said Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum, in a statement Wednesday. “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.”
The biggest risk past 2025
So, what if we make it past the next 12 months? Well, then there’s another, even more existential threat on the horizon. You already know what it is, so say it with us: that’s right, it’s climate change!
Well, okay, technically it’s extreme weather events, which about one in seven respondents picked as the most likely threat to present a global crisis in 2025 but which dominated the two- and ten-year outlooks. As we know, anthropogenic climate change is already making such events far more likely, and far worse when they do occur – look no further than the wildfires currently raging through Los Angeles for proof of that – so it’s no surprise really that this risk has topped the charts.
Mind you, it’s not the only environmental concern over the next decade. “In fact, nearly all environmental risks are included in the top 10,” the report points out. “Extreme weather events are anticipated to become even more severe, with the risk ranked first over the next decade for the second year running.”
“Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse ranks #2, up from #3 last year and with a significant deterioration compared to its two-year ranking (#21),” it notes; “Critical change to Earth systems at #3, Natural resource shortages at #4 and Pollution at #10 complete the very bleak outlook for environmental risks.”
What’s the solution?
It’s a pessimistic outlook for sure, with almost nine out of every ten respondents expecting the global outlook to be “unsettled”, “turbulent”, or “stormy” over the next two years. But according to the report, there is a way out of the pit – it’s just – well, let’s say it’s a long shot.
“Deepening divisions and increasing fragmentation are reshaping international relations,” the report says. “Key countries appear to be turning inward, focusing on mounting domestic economic or societal concerns, just when they should be seeking to strengthen multilateral ties to confront shared challenges.”
But “to prevent a downward spiral in which citizens worldwide will be worse off than before,” it advises, “ultimately there is no option other than to find avenues for dialogue and collaboration.”
In other words: we pull together, or we all lose out. And yes, we admit that it’s an international economic think tank saying this, so they kind of have a vested interest – but let’s face it, global warming is a global problem. It’s right there in the name, after all.
“From conflicts to climate change, we are facing interconnected crises that demand coordinated, collective action,” Mark Elsner, Head of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Initiative, said. “Renewed efforts to rebuild trust and foster cooperation are urgently needed.”
“The consequences of inaction could be felt for generations to come.”
The report can be read here.
Source Link: These Are The Biggest Threats Facing The World In 2025, Global Risks Report Reveals
