The latest forecast from the NOAA National Weather Service predicts that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be a freakishly busy one and could even rival 2005 – the year of Hurricane Katrina and Rita.
The NOAA forecast says there’s an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.
They estimated there will be between 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 62 kilometers (39 miles) per hour or higher. Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes, with winds of 119 kilometers (74 miles) per hour or higher, plus 4 to 7 major hurricanes with winds of 178 kilometers (111 miles) per hour or higher. The forecasters have a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.
“This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways,” Rick Spinrad, oceanographer and administrator of the NOAA, said in a news conference.
The record for the most major hurricanes in a single Atlantic season is seven, seen in both 2005 and 2020. With a maximum of seven major hurricanes forecasted, 2024 has the potential to rival those years.
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks warned in a statement.
“Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow,” Hooks added.
One of the main forces driving this year’s hurricane season is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. A powerful El Niño is currently winding down, making way for La Niña conditions, which fuel hurricane activity in the western Atlantic.
The aggressive Atlantic hurricane season ahead is also linked to the strong monsoon season predicted in West Africa, which increases wetness and waves off the coast of Africa that can travel across the Atlantic Ocean and foster hurricane activity.
Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and ends on November 30, with a peak of activity between mid-August and mid-October.
Since the 1950s, tropical cyclones have been given names to make it easier to communicate between meteorologists and the public. The theory goes that people are more likely to acknowledge and remember a storm with a personable name, rather than just a list of digits or a date.
Each year, the World Meteorological Organization puts together an alphabetical light of names that will be applied to storms. For 2024, the names of storms that originate in the Atlantic Ocean will be as follows:
- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Francine
- Gordon
- Helene
- Isaac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Milton
- Nadine
- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sara
- Tony
- Valerie
- William
Source Link: We're Due An "Extraordinary" Atlantic Hurricane Season In 2024, NOAA Warns