• Email Us: [email protected]
  • Contact Us: +1 718 874 1545
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Medical Market Report

  • Home
  • All Reports
  • About Us
  • Contact Us

Delayed recovery greatest risk to pandemic-hit Indian economy: Reuters poll

October 5, 2021 by David Barret Leave a Comment

October 5, 2021

By Tushar Goenka

BENGALURU (Reuters) – India’s economic recovery from pandemic-related shutdowns is at risk of a further delay in the six months that are left of this fiscal year, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who expect elevated inflation to hold or accelerate, not fall.

Price pressures in the world’s second most populous country have soared thanks to rising fuel prices, but the Reserve Bank of India is not expected to raise interest rates until at least the beginning of next financial year, in April-June 2022.

With lingering concerns about risks to growth, that leaves the RBI slightly behind many of its emerging market peers that are already raising rates.

“While extremely accommodative monetary policy has prevented the economy from falling off a cliff, a continuation of this policy in the absence of appropriate fiscal support will barely move the needle in terms of the pace of recovery of lost growth potential,” said Kunal Kundu at Societe Generale.

In the Sept. 27-Oct. 4 poll, year-on-year economic growth in Asia’s third largest economy was forecast at 7.8%, 6.0% and 5.8% for Q3, Q4 and Q1 2022 respectively. A July poll offered higher forecasts for Q3 and Q1 2022.

That follows a 20.1% expansion in the April-June quarter, the highest since the mid-1990s, which was helped by a very low base – the start of the pandemic in the prior year.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast to average 9.2% this fiscal year. Next financial year, growth is seen at 9.7% and 7.1% for the first two quarters and at 6.5% and 6.4% for the final two quarters, averaging 7.0% during 2022/23.

Those forecasts are largely unmoved from a July poll.

Asked about the greater risk to those numbers for the remainder of the fiscal year, 23 of 34, or over two-thirds of respondents, said a delayed recovery with limited downside. Eight said a strong recovery followed by an upgrade, and the remaining three said weak and prone to further downgrades.

“But with inflation expected to remain elevated … persisting with ultra-accommodative monetary policy when the economy is in a recovery phase could lead to stagflation, impacting the recovery itself,” said Kundu.

Inflation was forecast to be well above RBI’s medium-term target of 4% but was projected to remain below the 6% upper threshold until at least end-2024, according to the poll.

The RBI has been vocal about its intention in helping the government bolster growth and said policy support from all sides https://ift.tt/3D9LMUg is required to nurture a nascent and hesitant recovery.

“It will be a long while yet before financial conditions start to tighten in earnest, and even longer before policy rates are raised. Rate hikes will come onto the agenda when the economy should be closer to health,” said Shilan Shah at Capital Economics.

“The big picture is that policy will remain very accommodative for several months yet.”

Even as those uncertainties about the pace of the recovery prevail, the Indian stock market appears to be unfazed as share prices repeatedly reach record highs.

Investors have flocked to Indian shares as businesses and mobility recuperated from the devastating second wave of COVID-19 during April-May more quickly than expected.

The jobless situation has also improved with major restrictions lifted. A further 17 of 27 respondents said there was a low or very low risk unemployment will rise over the coming year. The rest said there was a high risk.

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

(Reporting by Tushar Goenka, Polling by Vivek Mishra, Shaloo Shrivastava, Manzer Hussain and Devayani Sathyan; Editing by Ross Finley and Steve Orlofsky)

Source Link Delayed recovery greatest risk to pandemic-hit Indian economy: Reuters poll

David Barret
David Barret

Related posts:

  1. Panorama raises $60M in General Atlantic-led Series C to help schools better understand students
  2. U.S. condemns North Korea missile launch – State Department spokesperson
  3. French prosecutor confirms raid of Lagardere’s offices
  4. Boxing – Manny Pacquiao retires from boxing

Filed Under: News

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Primary Sidebar

  • Project Hail Mary Trailer First Look: What Would Happen If The Sun Got Darker?
  • Newly Discovered Cell Structure Might Hold Key To Understanding Devastating Genetic Disorders
  • What Is Kakeya’s Needle Problem, And Why Do We Want To Solve It?
  • “I Wasn’t Prepared For The Sheer Number Of Them”: Cave Of Mummified Never-Before-Seen Eyeless Invertebrates Amazes Scientists
  • Asteroid Day At 10: How The World Is More Prepared Than Ever To Face Celestial Threats
  • What Happened When A New Zealand Man Fell Butt-First Onto A Powerful Air Hose
  • Ancient DNA Confirms Women’s Unexpected Status In One Of The Oldest Known Neolithic Settlements
  • Earth’s Weather Satellites Catch Cloud Changes… On Venus
  • Scientists Find Common Factors In People Who Have “Out-Of-Body” Experiences
  • Shocking Photos Reveal Extent Of Overfishing’s Impact On “Shrinking” Cod
  • Direct Fusion Drive Could Take Us To Sedna During Its Closest Approach In 11,000 Years
  • Earth’s Energy Imbalance Is More Than Double What It Should Be – And We Don’t Know Why
  • We May Have Misjudged A Fundamental Fact About The Cambrian Explosion
  • The Shoebill Is A Bird So Bizarre That Some People Don’t Even Believe It’s Real
  • Colossal’s “Dire Wolves” Are Now 6 Months Old – And They’ve Doubled In Size
  • How To Fake A Fossil: Find Out More In Issue 36 Of CURIOUS – Out Now
  • Is It True Earth Used To Take 420 Days To Orbit The Sun?
  • One Of The Ocean’s “Most Valuable Habitats” Grows The Only Flowers Known To Bloom In Seawater
  • World’s Largest Digital Camera Snaps 2,104 New Asteroids In 10 Hours, Mice With 2 Dads Father Their Own Offspring, And Much More This Week
  • Simplest Explanation For “Anomalous” Signals Coming From Underneath Antarctica Ruled Out
  • Business
  • Health
  • News
  • Science
  • Technology
  • +1 718 874 1545
  • +91 78878 22626
  • [email protected]
Office Address
Prudour Pvt. Ltd. 420 Lexington Avenue Suite 300 New York City, NY 10170.

Powered by Prudour Network

Copyrights © 2025 · Medical Market Report. All Rights Reserved.

Go to mobile version